Gee, Doug, You Think We Will Go To War With Iran?

This is sort of a fantasy question.. the idea I am important enough for someone to ask me that and care about my answer.  But, this is my blog, and I’ll cry if I want to.. cry if I want to…  (boomer reference to an old rock & roll song for those who didn’t understand that)

Ok, I suppose it depends on how you might define “going to war”.  You gotta love all those nifty smart weapons, drones, satellite communications… and all those Navy SEAL guys and other covert operatives… that can be used behind the scenes for surgical strikes rather than using the blunt force of Amercian boots on the ground.  But that’s likely the extent of us going to any war with Iran.  While we are hearing sabre-rattling from Israel, on the surface at least the U.S. military position is one of restraint in place of diplomacy; likely a diplomatic good cop, bad cop thing going on.   I can’t imagine even in my wildest nightmare scenarios that we would ever invade Iran Iraqi-style.  Iran is larger geographically, has many more people, a tougher military (which only means it would not be likely we’d be seeing mass defections/surrenders in the desert like we did in Desert Storm; these guys would likely fight back), and there’s more of a patriotic furvor going on over there that certainly would serve to galvinize the population to some measure.

English: Key Petroleum Sector facilities (2004...

Places where the oil is located.

Politically I don’t think we have any great international support for starting an Iraqi-style war in Iran.   You will recall that the younger Bush put together a “coalition of the willing” prior to starting that crusade.  Us Americans were not the only boots on the ground over there (by the way.. gotta love that term “boots on the ground”; one of the endearing phrases to come out of Desert Storm that kinda serves to sanitize the true meaning… “Americans being placed in harms way”).  So if there’s another crusade into the Middle East our president will have to set up another coalition to spread around some of the responsibility and the blame.  That takes time.

Likely what will happen will be air strikes.  First air strikes might begin as defensive in nature to the growing antagonism Iran is proliferating in the Strait of Hormuz.  If Iran starts attacking shipping in some form, sea mines or patrol boats.. or even by air, then the shooting war starts, whether we fire the first shots or they do.  Who draws first blood really won’t matter.

If Iran prefers to just “play” around in the Strait and taunt rather than act then likely we (meaning whatever nations might become allies in an air strike) will try and take out their nuclear facilities at some point in the near future.  I dunno that you have to have a super bunker buster bomb that penetrates hundreds of feet into the ground; just bomb the entrances would seem to work to me.  Make it so no one can get in or get out.  But you can rest assured that the Iranian military likely has those places defended so the approaches to those bunkers from the air will give a nasty sting to whatever aircraft we send into the area, whether we send in those stealthy things or not.

I’m guessing the Iranians will let those IAEA inspectors in again.. and that will buy them at least another 6 months.  If those guys are in country there’s likely going to be no air strikes.  You know how I know all this?  Because it’s all happened before.. in years past, conflicts past.  Been there, done that. 

But you never know.  I’d be ready when those inspection guys leave Iran next time and find nothing.  Then things might get a little interesting.


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